More frequent earthquakes, but we’re in a ‘seismic drought’? Here’s why

Good morning. It’s Wednesday, Sept. 25. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.
Los Angeles kicked off 2024 with a 4.1 magnitude quake that rattled the region, including Rose Parade attendees in Pasadena.
Less than a week later, a 4.2 temblor rippled out from the San Bernardino area. A few weeks later, another quake of the same magnitude struck about 15 miles away.
In the months since, the rattling has continued, shaking communities in Malibu; in El Centro; in Corona; in Ventura County; in Newport Beach; in Bakersfield; in the Mojave Desert; in L.A.’s historic El Sereno.
Most recently (as of this writing), a magnitude 3 temblor that caused “weak” shaking in Malibu this past Saturday.
Maybe you’ve wondered — as I did after my peaceful morning in the San Gabriel Valley was interrupted by a 4.7 quake near Malibu on Sept. 12 — why it seems quakes are rattling us more often.
Is that actually happening?
Some of my fellow Times reporters answered that question. Turns out yes, there has been an increase in moderate earthquakes rumbling the region, according to scientists.
That Sept. 12 quake near Malibu marked SoCal’s 14th seismic sequence this year that included at least one magnitude 4 or higher temblor, according to seismologist Lucy Jones, L.A.’s patron saint of earthquake info. That breaks a 65-year-old record.
But scientists note that the increased frequency “is not necessarily an indication that a large, damaging earthquake is around the corner,” my colleagues Rong-Gong Lin II, Steve Henson, Ruben Vives and Karen Garcia reported. “Some researchers have offered dueling theories — some say earthquake activity increases in a region before a large earthquake, others say seismic activity decreases before a large jolt.”
But even though we’re feeling notably more shaking this year, SoCal remains in a “seismic drought,” Ron explained, noting we have not experienced any major damaging earthquakes under the Golden State’s most populous cities in the last 30 years.
If you were alive in Southern California in 1994, chances are you remember the last time.
The 6.7 magnitude Northridge earthquake lasted about 20 seconds. Sixty people were killed and thousands more injured.
It crumpled freeways and destroyed or damaged an estimated 80,000 homes, stores and other structures. Trains derailed. Gas and water lines ruptured. Power transformers blew. Hundreds of fires broke out across the region.
The quake caused an estimated $20 billion in damage and an additional $40 billion in economic losses, according to the California Department of Conservation.
In the nearly 31 years since, we’ve fortunately lacked devastation anywhere near that magnitude. But this streak won’t last forever.
Every seismic jolt we experience should serve as a reminder that California’s next major quake is not a matter of if — it’s a matter of time.
The infamous Northridge quake isn’t even considered a “Big One.” For that, we have to go back to 1857’s Fort Tejon earthquake, a 7.9 magnitude monster on the San Andreas fault that ruptured 225 miles between Monterey and San Bernardino counties. Just one death was reported in that quake. The impact of a similarly sized temblor would be vastly different today.
“A hypothetical future magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, from the Mexican border to Los Angeles County, could result in 1,800 deaths and nearly 50,000 injuries, according to the U.S. Geological Survey’s ‘ShakeOut’ scenario,” Ron reported.
The Northridge quake led to major investments in seismic retrofitting and major changes in how we build things. But Ron previously reported that some California cities have largely “ignored the seismic threat … [creating] an uneven landscape that in the coming years will leave some cities significantly better prepared to withstand a big quake than others.”
As I wrote earlier this year looking back on the 30 years since Northridge, there are things we can all do to be a little more prepared. Here are a few questions to consider:
If you’re inclined to work through those questions and more, check out The Times’ handy guide on all things earthquake preparedness.
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Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they’re important to you.
Today’s great photo is from Jim Colton of Palo Alto: Redwood National Park.
Jim writes: “Walking among these large and beautiful trees is a peaceful and humbling experience.”
Have a great day, from the Essential California team
Ryan Fonseca, reporterDefne Karabatur, fellowAndrew Campa, Sunday reporterHunter Clauss, multiplatform editorChristian Orozco, assistant editorStephanie Chavez, deputy metro editorKarim Doumar, head of newsletters
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For the record: Yesterday’s Essential California said a quick-moving 2023 landslide happened in Rolling Hills. It occurred in Rolling Hills Estates, a different city. The newsletter also conflated that 2023 slide with the slow-moving ongoing slide at nearby Portuguese Bend. The two slides are not related.